Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(3:08) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.55 EP
74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model