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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:30) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley pass incomplete short right to 81-B.Bell (44-T.Matakevich) [31-M.Hilton]. Pressure by 31-Hilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.04 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model