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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(10:08) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to MIN 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-29-B.Allen. Penalty on MIN-55-A.Barr, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.71 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP