Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 82

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:13) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 55 yards to PIT 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 34 for 7 yards (40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on PIT-56-A.Chickillo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.29 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model