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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 19

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(3:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 19, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model