Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

(1:51) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to PIT 40, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model