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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 80

New England Patriots 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to NO 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at NO 39 for 16 yards (49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model