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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 31

New Orleans Saints 13 – New England Patriots 30

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model