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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 9

New England Patriots 33 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 3-S.Gostkowski 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. INJURY UPDATE: NE#34 R.Burkhead and NE#87 R.Gronkowski both QUESTIONABLE to return.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 9, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model