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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 28

New Orleans Saints 0 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model