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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to JAX 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-M.Lee to JAX 34 for 4 yards (48-B.Brinkley). PENALTY on JAX-26-J.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model