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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 23

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model