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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 3-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to TEN 20, Center-43-M.Overton. 25-A.Jackson ran ob at JAX 34 for 46 yards (40-T.Bohanon).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.88 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model