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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 2-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.68 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP