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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 22

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.57 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP