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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:59) 3-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to TEN 19, Center-43-M.Overton. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 28 for 9 yards (94-D.Smoot).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model