Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(14:27) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to JAX 29, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. TEN-13-T.Taylor was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.75 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model