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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 37

Detroit Lions 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.83 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP