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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 22

Detroit Lions 3 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.61 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP