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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(:36) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.88 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model