Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 75

Detroit Lions 13 – Atlanta Falcons 20

(:14) 18-J.Locke punts 48 yards to ATL 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.32 EP
65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -2.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model