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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 84

Detroit Lions 13 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to ATL 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at DET 41 for 27 yards (31-D.Hayden).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 84, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 42, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model