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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 17

Detroit Lions 20 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model