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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 51

Detroit Lions 26 – Atlanta Falcons 30

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to ATL 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.57 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model