4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 30 – Detroit Lions 26

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to DET 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.62 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP