Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(8:24) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to BAL 20, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model