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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to JAX 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-M.Lee to JAX 29 for 2 yards (36-C.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.73 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model