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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 44

What Actually Happened

(9:45) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass short right to 37-J.Allen to JAX 37 for 3 yards (50-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model