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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(7:38) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-88-V.Mayle, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at JAX 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP