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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 27-L.Fournette right end to BAL 33 for 6 yards (22-J.Smith). BAL-96-B.Urban was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.54 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model