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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 2-A.Lee punts 35 yards to DAL 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP