Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Dallas Cowboys 14

(5:53) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to DAL 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.34 EP
61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model