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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to ARI 4, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.69 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP