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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 87

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 2-A.Lee punts 39 yards to DAL 48, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Switzer to 50 for 2 yards (46-A.Brewer).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.37 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 87, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP