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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 19

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 4-P.Dawson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model