4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to DAL 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Switzer pushed ob at DAL 38 for 16 yards (27-T.Branch).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.42 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model