Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Arizona Cardinals 17

(3:05) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to ARI 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 13 for no gain (35-K.Frazier).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.44 EP
72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -2.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model