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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 17

Denver Broncos 10 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(:46) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.23 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model