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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model