Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 13 – Denver Broncos 13

(12:57) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to DEN 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 41 for 16 yards (14-J.Webb).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.77 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model