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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 20 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.49 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model