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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 45

Denver Broncos 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.80 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model