Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(6:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to DEN 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model