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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 20

Denver Broncos 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:53) 8-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 20, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model