Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 81

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 0

(13:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 65 yards to NE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-D.Amendola to NE 49 for 33 yards (23-K.Drummond).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.08 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model