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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 22

Houston Texans 10 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model