4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 59

Houston Texans 20 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to NE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 30 for 20 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.58 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -1.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP