Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 59

Houston Texans 30 – New England Patriots 28

(7:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to NE 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.33 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model