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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 21

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.63 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP