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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 74

Houston Texans 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 9-S.Lechler punts 68 yards to NE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-22-J.Todman.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.37 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model